Written November 26th 2019
Abu Dhabi GP F1 Betting Tips & Preview
And so the flag falls for the final time on another year of F1 action in Abu Dhabi this weekend. While the Championships may have already been decided in 2019, that doesn’t mean this grand prix will be processional, with the race last time out in Brazil likely to go down as one of the classics in the history of the sport. A victory is something all the drivers would relish, so don’t be surprised if we see a similarly entertaining race at the Yas Marina circuit, and with the minor championship places yet to be decided, there is still plenty to play for before the season is out.
The battle for third is now a two horse race, with Max Verstappen holding an eleven point lead over Charles Leclerc in the Drivers’ Championship. An excellent second place finish for Toro Rosso’s Pierre Gasly at Interlagos has put clear daylight between his team and Racing Point in the Constructors’. The Italian outfit are now only eight points behind fifth placed Renault and have an outside chance of taking that place as well this weekend. Meanwhile, a fourth and fifth place for Sauber in Brazil has put them within striking distance of Racing Point, with 10 points now the difference between seventh and eighth. The Swiss team could in theory finish as high as fifth, which emphasises just how tight the midfield battle has been this year. But who are we backing to prevail come raceday?
21.co.uk’s resident tipster is back with his take in what is his final F1 betting preview in 2019, but will return for a season review before Christmas where he will look to pick out some of the highlights of the year - including a look at how our betting tips went this season. Without further ado, here are our F1 betting tips for the 2019 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.
Abu Dhabi Grand Prix Formula 1 Betting Tips
Abu Dhabi Grand Prix Qualifying Tip
As is the case at many of the tracks this year, we can see different sectors favouring different teams in qualifying. The Yas Marina circuit is perhaps iconic for the extremely long back straight in sector 2, which is followed by a chicane, before another long straight. With Ferrari’s straight line speed advantage we expect them to dominate this sector in qualifying, whereas the final sector features the type of corners that have generally favoured Mercedes all year. We feel as though the time Ferrari gain in the middle sector and pit straight could be too much for the other teams to recover in other parts of the track, so are backing them to be the fastest qualifier for the first time since Japan. The only question then is whether to back Leclerc or Vettel to claim the final pole position of the season. We could see this easily going either way, but have gone with Vettel at online betting odds of 4/1. The German driver has outqualified his younger teammate in three of the last four races and we could see him adding to his two pole positions at this track, although Leclerc does have the pole position trophy in 2019, so you shouldn’t rule him out here either.
Abu Dhabi Grand Prix Winner Tip
One of the last regular F1 betting markets that we have on 21.co.uk and haven’t mentioned on the blog is winning nationality. Punters that place a wager on this market are betting on the country which the winning driver represents in the sport. Currently the drivers that are in contention for the race victory on a regular basis all come from different nations, which means, barring a chaotic race, it is effectively the same as betting on the driver. This wasn’t necessarily the case in the past. In 2018, Raikkonen and Bottas were both in contention for race victories on a regular basis, which meant betting on the winning driver being from Finland would have given bettors two realistic chances of winning. However, in Formula 1 you just never know and anything can happen, so this market could still be worth a look - especially if the race is wet. As for this week’s tip, we’ve gone for a British driver to win, as we feel Hamilton may come out on top. The 2019 World Champion is available at 8/5 to win, which is the same price as betting on the winner being British, so perhaps it makes more sense to place a bet on the winning nationality if you think Hamilton will win. This would also give you Norris and Russell as other options for the race victory at the same price.
Where is the Value?
As previously stated, we feel that Ferrari may come out on top on Saturday and went with Vettel, rather than Leclerc, for pole position in our qualifying tip. However, with Ferrari having two world class drivers it may be worth betting on the team to win qualifying if you think that Ferrari will have the fastest car, as either driver could claim pole on their day. The team achieved a run of five successive fastest qualifyings just past the summer break, but haven’t done so in the last three races. We think this may be track specific and could see their car returning to being the one to have this weekend. This is available at F1 odds of 8/5, which we consider decent value.
Long Shot of the Weekend
Our long shot tip this week is one that we’ve previously backed in the blog, as we’ve gone for the race winner to start on the second row at odds of 4/1. Our thinking behind this comes from a combination of our previous tips. We feel as though Ferrari will be fastest in qualifying which means they could lock out the front row, but we also think that Hamilton could win, and if he’s not on the front row then we’re thinking he will be on the second row. The Brit has won from the second row three times already this season and, if the current trend that could be found in recent races continues, he may have a slight advantage on race pace compared to the Ferraris. Regardless of who the drivers are that line up in the third or fourth grid slots, you’re likely to have two realistic chances of winning. A word of caution though - the winner of the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix has come from the front row on all but one of the ten previous grands prix at the circuit. That race was in 2012 and was won from fourth on the grid by Kimi Raikkonen, so while it is possible to win from outside the top two qualifiers, it could prove difficult.
Other Abu Dhabi Grand Prix Bets of Interest
An F1 bet that may provide decent value could be backing Kimi Raikkonen to finish in the top 10 at odds of 23/20. The Finn achieved his first points finish since Hungary last time out with an impressive fourth place finish at Interlagos, and we wouldn’t be surprised to see him make that back-to-back top 10 finishes to round off an impressive season in his first year with the team. The 2007 World Champion has a decent record at the circuit. In addition to the previously mentioned win, he also has a further four points finishes, which means he has achieved top 10 finishes in five of his seven races at the track since he returned to the sport in 2012, with the other two ending in retirement. We can see him adding to that good points finishing record this weekend.
Our final tip for the 2019 season sees us back another Finn to do well in the last race of the season, with Valtteri Bottas to finish on the podium available at 13/10. The Mercedes driver has had a good season. Five pole positions and four race wins in 2019 has seen him secure a fairly comfortable second place in the Drivers’ Championship, and he’ll probably want to end his campaign with a good result here. His race last time out in Brazil ended in a reliability related retirement, so he will likely be looking to bounce back with at least a podium from which to build heading into next year. He, like many of the drivers, will probably be aiming to be crowned World Champion in 2020.
Abu Dhabi GP F1 Betting Tips and Predictions
Here are all of 21.co.uk’s F1 tips for the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.
|Fastest Qualifier||Sebastian Vettel||4/1|
|Qualification Winning Team||Ferrari||8/5|
|Grid Position of Winner||3rd or 4th Place||4/1|
|Top 10 Finish||Kimi Raikkonen||23/20|
|Podium Position||Valtteri Bottas||13/10|
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All odds from our online sportsbook correct at the time of writing.
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